The Sox’s Dilemma in centerfield.
This is the time of year when all 30 teams have high aspirations for the season, no matter whether they are coming off a World Series championship like the Red Sox or haven’t made the playoffs in 16 years like the Pirates.
Well, maybe the Pirates don’t have such high hopes for the season. Rookies this year such as Evan Longoria, 3B of the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays, Joey Votto, 1B of the Cincinnati Reds, and starting pitchers Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees will look to make a big impact. However, perhaps the most exciting rookie to watch out for this year will be the Boston Red Sox’ young centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury.
Even though he was a September call-up and World Series hero last year, he still qualifies as a rookie under the major league rules since he has had less than 130 at-bats in the majors. Unfortunately for Mr. Ellsbury, competing with him in centerfield will be the incumbent Coco Crisp, who the Red Sox have signed through the end of 2009, with an option for 2010. Crisp’s name was heard in trade rumors involving Johan Santana all winter, but since Santana was shipped to the Mets for a bunch of minor leaguers, the Red Sox brass seemingly are going to let Coco and Jacoby battle it out for the centerfield spot.
Let’s take a deeper look at exactly how these two would help out the team this year. I think all can agree that both of these speedsters would certainly help the team out on the basepaths, where Coco was second on the team last year (to Julio Lugo) with 28 steals in 34 attempts, and Jacoby had a very respectable 9 steals out of 9 attempts in limited major league action, as well as 41 more in the minors. I’ll give the slight edge to Ellsbury in the running department.
Moving on next to offense, I think that this is where the questions will definitely arise. Will the Sox get the production they expected out of Coco when they first acquired him in the winter before 2006 from the Indians? In ’05 he was one of the more productive leftfielders in the majors, hitting .300 with 16 homeruns and an OPS over .800. Or instead will they get the Coco of the past two years, who has only averaged a meager seven homers, .266 BA, and .707 OPS? Crisp has been hampered by injuries the past two seasons, so if he is able to stay healthy, the Red Sox are hoping for the earlier version. On the other, Ellsbury has very little experience in the major leagues, and his 116 at-bats last year are too small of a sample size to judge from, even though he did hit .375 with 11 extra base hits. His numbers throughout the minor leagues, though, have been very consistent, with Jacoby hitting at least .300 at every level he has been at, including .452 in a short stint with the Sox’ AA affiliate in Portland, ME. I think again Jacoby will have to get the edge, as he probably has more upside than Coco, even if Crisp returns to his pre-Boston form.
The last aspect of the game we need to look at is defense, which is where Coco made his money last year. According to David Pinto’s defensive range charts at www.baseballmusings.com. Coco saved the Red Sox more than 25 outs last year in centerfield (above the average centerfielder), performing above average everywhere in Fenway Park’s eccentric centerfield. Compare that to Ellsbury, who was only 1.5 outs better than average. Ellsbury is no slouch, however — over a full season this number would most likely increase. And although this may not be backed up statistically, the spectacular catches that Coco makes on a regular basis tend to be momentum changers, getting the Fenway crowd into the game and the other team on its heels. So there may be some extra value to the defense that Coco brings to the table. I will give Crisp the defensive edge, with Ellsbury not terribly far behind.
The last thing to consider, and probably one of the most important, is the intangibles of each player. For Ellsbury, would it hurt his development as a young player to sit on the bench for a season? Could he handle a pinch-running and defensive replacement role after being the star of his team coming up through high school, college, and the minors? I’m inclined to say yes to the first question and no to the second. It’s hard to dispute that Jacoby is a star on the rise, and a year on the bench could stunt his growth. But I think he would perform very well in a bench role, as he helped the Red Sox tremendously late in games last September and October.
For Crisp, the big question is whether he would be happy in a platoon role or with limited playing time coming off the bench. He has already stated publicly that he would prefer to be traded than to not play at all for the Red Sox, which is understandable. I don’t see him becoming a problem to the team chemistry, though, as Jay Payton was a couple years ago, if he’s not getting the playing time he feels he deserves. Unless Coco is getting at least 3 starts a week, though, I think it would be best for all parties if they were able to trade him for some insurance starting pitching. The best scenario for the Red Sox would be to have one of the two clearly emerge as the better player. If that doesn’t happen, given all the factors above, I’d have to go with Coco right now, but have a quick hook. If he’s not performing well through the early part of the season, it will be time to give way to Ellsbury.
At this early point in the season, the Red Sox have not given a clear indication of who will be the starting centerfielder, as Ellsbury and Crisp have each started 3 games out of four (Ellsbury started one in rightfield). In the end, having too many outfielders is clearly better than having too few for the Red Sox. They will be challenged by the Yankees, Indians, and Tigers this season, but will definitely be the team to beat to start the season.
The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective (HSAC) blogs at www.hcs.harvard.edu/~hsac/Blog. Though Alex Ahmed (aahmed@fas) ’10 only saves 5 outs above average in centerfield, he was also mentioned in trade rumors for Johan Santana.