For GOP Senate contenders, 2008 is a long day’s journey into night.
WHILE MOST HEAD-TO-HEAD POLLING reports show a reasonably close race for the White House in 2008, things are far less rosy for the Republican Party on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. Life is tough for the minority on Capitol Hill, so five senior Republican senators are cashing in their chips and going home; meanwhile, many of those that want to stay will face a stiff challenge from a number of very competent and confident opponents.
The depressing truth here is not how tough the fights are, but how many of them will need to be fought.
The Democrats, on the other hand, are not so much on Pennsylvania Avenue as on Easy Street: with no retirements, plenty of scratch in the coffers, and only one potential vulnerability (the Louisiana seat held by Mary Landrieu), Democratic Senate campaign chair Chuck Schumer is letting the good times roll. Read on for a play-by-play of the seven most competitive contests, and a couple of wild card races to watch.
Colorado: Wayne Allard, the thoroughly unremarkable GOP incumbent, is calling it quits after 12 years; his departure is of little significance, though it will halve the number of veterinarians in the Senate (the other is John Ensign of Nevada). The fight for his seat is a pure brawl of ideologies: Democratic Rep. Mark Udall is a strong liberal noted for his pro-environment activism, while former Rep. Bob Schaffer, pinch-hitting for the GOP, is a solid Western conservative from the east of the state. Udall has more money and is leading, albeit narrowly, in the polls. Though much depends on whom both parties nominate for president (sharing a ticket with Hillary Clinton, in particular, might hurt Udall), it looks like the Democrats are in a good position to take the seat. PREDICTION: Narrow Democratic takeover.
New Mexico: In this sparsely populated state, the political cast includes some pretty unsavory characters. Citing health concerns, Republican Pete Domenici is retiring after 36 years on the job; odds are, though, that his concerns are mostly political. First, there was a mini-scandal regarding Domenici’s possibly improper use of influence in the US attorneys affair, which resulted in the dismissal of New Mexico’s veteran prosecutor David Iglesias. Then came reports that the elderly Domenici had been spotted stalking Senate office hallways in his nightwear, earning him the unflattering nickname “Pajama Pete.” Domenici’s putative successor had been moderate Republican congresswoman Heather Wilson, who rather memorably cried on the House floor while delivering a speech on the Janet Jackson Super Bowl exposure. But conservative Rep. Steve Pearce is challenging her in the primary, and may hold more sway with the GOP base. Meanwhile, the Democrats are pitching, somewhat unenthusiastically, the merits of Albuquerque mayor Marty Chavez, whom the state’s liberals perceive to be way too close to the developer community. Another wild card is Governor Bill Richardson, whose presidential bid is slowly flaming out: if he exits the presidential race and enters the Senate contest, he would be favored to win. PREDICTION: Narrow GOP retention, unless Richardson runs.
Virginia: Republican John Warner is retiring and leaving big shoes to fill. For 30 years, he was a sharp and thoughtful legislator with an encyclopedic knowledge of foreign policy and a firm finger on the pulse of the armed services. The contenders for his seat are both former governors: Mark Warner (no relation) for the Dems and Jim Gilmore for the GOP. Gilmore, a tough talker on taxes and national security, recently dropped out of the Presidential race but remains a favorite of the state’s still-substantial conservative wing; the moderate Warner is an accomplished (and rich) businessman who left office last year with killer approval ratings. Both men are well-known, but Warner is far better regarded as an administrator. The GOP is preparing for a colossal spanking here, with polls showing Warner taking in excess of 60 percent of the vote. In other words, this Gilmore ain’t happy. PREDICTION: Democrats by a mile.
Maine: GOP Senator Susan Collins is a respected moderate with a record of electoral success. Her challenger, US Rep. Tom Allen, is an equally respected anti-war liberal. Elections in Maine tend to be clean and civil and usually feature a strong third party presence, which will likely hold both major party contenders below 50 percent of the vote (last year, the incumbent governor, John Baldacci, was reelected with just 38 percent, with 30 percent of the vote split between two independent challengers). So far, polls show that Collins is holding down the fort, but there is every indication that Allen is very much a threat: he’s raising money fast and cutting into Collins’s margin among many voting groups. In a Democratic-leaning state like Maine, Collins needs not only her own GOP base, but also a large number of Democrats and Independents. Collins’s undoing may well be that she hasn’t distanced herself enough from the Bush administration on the war in Iraq. PREDICTION: Narrow GOP retention, but things could change fast.
Minnesota: Things look bleak for GOP Senator Norm Coleman, who was narrowly elected in 2002 after his opponent, incumbent Paul Wellstone, died in a plane crash just days before the vote. His likely Democratic opponent is none other than Al Franken, the comedian and writer. Franken has almost caught up to Coleman in the polls, is going gangbusters in fundraising, and turns out to be a better campaigner than many expected. Coleman is taking a beating for his ties to Bush and the war and is generally considered to be to the right of the Minnesota electorate. PREDICTION: Toss-up.
New Hampshire: Former IOP Director and Governor Jeanne Shaheen is batting for the Democrats and incumbent John Sununu for the Republicans. This is a rematch of the 2002 race, which Sununu won 51–47. But times have changed: New Hampshire is in the midst of a revolution, with the Democrats having taken over 89 seats in the state legislature last November. The state’s popular Democratic governor, John Lynch, will be on the ballot in 2008 and will in all likelihood drag Shaheen to a victory over the hapless Sununu, who, in truth, has few demerits beyond party affiliation. PREDICTION: Democratic takeover.
Oregon: Republican Gordon Smith, who, curiously enough, is Mark Udall’s cousin (see Colorado above) is facing a tough challenge from Democratic state house speaker Jeff Merkley. If Merkley finds a way to tie Smith to Bush and keep enough of his base to fend off a leftist independent challenge, he’ll be in a good position to upset Smith. PREDICTION: Narrow GOP retention.
Wild Card Races:
Oklahoma: Who would have thought that the GOP would need to worry about Oklahoma? The incumbent in the Sooner State is one Jim Inhofe, an acerbic conservative with a penchant for the impolitic. He is “outraged by the outrage” over the Abu Ghraib scandal, he compares global warming activists to Nazis, and then, just when you think he’s fulfilled his yearly quota of crazy, he gets up on the Senate floor and, beaming with pride, tells the assembled lawmakers how proud he is that there has never been a gay person in his family. Dems are running newbie Andrew Rice, a relatively liberal state senator, and apparently making some headway. Still, it’s always a huge uphill fight for the Democrats here, especially in a presidential election year: in 2004, Rep. Brad Carson, who was considered a top-tier nominee, received a royal 11-point thumping. Suggestion: wait a few years, and then nominate Carrie Underwood.
Alaska: Ted Stevens is the longest-serving Republican senator ever. He’s also among the most controversial, usually good for a scathing remark or a pork barrel scandal. This time around, he’s being investigated by the feds for improper ties to and possible bribes from an oil services company. If the Democrats want to pull the trigger and run their top man, Anchorage mayor Mark Begich, things look competitive. But if things start heading south for Stevens, the Republicans have an alternative in the state’s popular governor, Sarah Palin, whose approval rating is in a realm usually reserved for African dictators. If she wants the Senate seat and can persuade Stevens to retire, this race is pretty much over.
Most Republican insiders admit that a loss of seats in inevitable; a look at Virginia alone is enough to make the GOP campaign chair cry. If everything breaks for the Democrats, they will pick up nine seats, enough for a filibuster-proof supermajority. That’s a tall order, but with so many factors in flux, nobody is willing to rule anything out.
Dan Nalbandyan '08 (dnalband@fas) always fulfills his yearly quota of crazy.