Do experts know best? [WEB ONLY]

Time to tune out the NBA pundits and their faulty playoff predictions.

By ALEX THOMPSON

Yes, after our long 82 game season in which sports pundits spent untold amounts of time advocating this or that theory and predicting a team’s success or failure based on a few games, we can finally put all the silly questions to rest because each game actually matters. Don’t misunderstand, I love every game of the NBA season—okay I lied, New Jersey Nets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves was not a must-see—but the season is for entertainment. The playoffs, by contrast, are meant for jersey-wearing at home, cursing at the TV without regard for the people around you—sorry Mom! — and your team going all-in on a championship. With dreams being reached or dismally crushed (I’m talking as much about the fans as I am the players), and with a 7-game series determining each round of the playoffs, there is no better time for Basketball fans.

(Side note: For those of you who argue that March Madness is much better because of the team camaraderie blah blah blah, watch the games closer because basketball fans can observe the tremendous inferiority of the college game relative to the NBA. I find close March Madness games as exciting as anyone else, but after watching team after team incessantly run such similar offenses and defenses, I get bored! That’s the beauty of the NBA; the talent is so deep and diverse that offensive and defensive systems can be more complex and as a result the game becomes more compelling to watch.)

The NBA playoffs are one of the best times of the year for basketball fans, but the punditry, predictions, and critiques by so-called experts have taken away suspense and replaced it with egomaniacal predictions and trivial arguments. So here’s my advice: you can listen to pundits’ arguments, but always formulate your own opinions, even if you feel that the “experts” are more knowledgeable. Increasingly, sports writers and broadcasters create controversy, establish faux narratives, and talk at the audience as a means of supplying yet another form of mindless entertainment. Make predictions, but don’t accept others just because an expert made them. Think about the last few playoffs and how obviously wrong the pundits were.

We have the “inevitable” NBA finals between Lebron and Kobe last year to the point where Nike began making Lebron-Kobe puppet commercials.  Once the Orlando Magic beat Lebron’s Cavs, suddenly all the pundits began talking about how innovative the Magic’s pure inside-out offense was (basically, Dwight Howard dominated the center and was surrounded by four capable outside shooters) and that it was no surprise that they beat the Cavaliers. Instead of realizing that a nice-sounding narrative does not correspond with reality, the pundits merely created a new narrative.

Then, in Game 1 of the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals featuring the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Detroit Pistons, Lebron passed the ball to an open man in the corner instead of taking the buzzer-beater himself. His teammate missed. “I go for the winning play,” James said. “The winning play when two guys come at you and a teammate is open is to give it up. It’s as simple as that.”

It should have been as simple as that, but over the next week, pundits incessantly asked questions about Lebron’s leadership qualities and whether he had what it takes to be one of the greatest. What’s Lebron doing now? Oh, that’s right, two-time MVP of the league, the sole all-star on a contender, and one of the best players ever seen. It should also be noted that all four “ESPN NBA experts” predicted the Piston to win that 2007 playoff series when the Cavs won the best-of-seven series in 6 games.

Just this past week, we heard rumbles that Kobe may have lost his touch, that he was over the hill, unable to lead a team by himself. Either referencing his incredible number of injuries or the related fact that he’s played 13 regular seasons and over 160 playoff games, most pundits jumped to questioning Kobe’s playoff performance before the playoffs even started. Then he scored 15 of his 39 points in the fourth quarter in Tuesday night’s playoff game versus the Oklahoma City Thunder. Asked about why pundits prematurely wrote him off, Bryant responded that “after 13 years, you’d think they’d know better.” You’d think, but the temptation to create controversy out of nothing is simply too easy to indulge.

The members of the sports media create new narratives as a means of fitting diverse facts into a simplistic story to package and sell to the broadest audience.  While this provides entertainment (and ratings) to the lowest-common-viewer, it’s stupid. I don’t care that you have a poll telling me if people think the Portland Trailblazers can win a playoff series without Brandon Roy. Let’s discuss what Brandon Roy does for the Blazers and how they are going to compensate for his injury rather than offering elaborately disguised but equally uncompromising yes-or-no answers. Instead of hearing fun and interesting sports debates on ESPN, Fox Sports Net, or in the editorial pages of newspapers, we get sports writers presenting the most radical arguments to provoke controversy. As the Rush Limbaughs of the world have shown us, irreconcilable conflict sells much better than coherent discussion. But the ability to sell does not imply superior quality.

Oh wait, this is an editorial in a newspaper. In that case I better make my own NBA Finals prediction with little analysis or thought: the Boston Celtics over the Dallas Mavericks in 6 games. Ta-da!

Alex Thompson ‘11 prefers to put his own head in the game when it comes to the NBA.

2 Responses to “Do experts know best? [WEB ONLY]”

1. bose qc3 says:

   July 1, 2010 at 12:28 am

   I’ve really enjoyed reading your articles. Thanks!
2. Tennille Hollaway says:

   September 2, 2010 at 1:05 am

   Well it’s great to see that someone is using proper grammar.

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